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"Will Windows 10 EoL Lead to the Year of the Linux Desktop?" - October 2025 Edition

The Reality Check (One Week In)

What Just Happened:

  • October 14, 2025 was the official end of support - Windows 10 no longer receives security updates, feature updates, or technical support
  • Estimates suggest around 560 million devices worldwide are still running Windows 10, with about 21 million in the UK alone
  • In December 2024, Windows 10 was still on about 63% of all PCs worldwide while Windows 11 sat at 34%

The ESU Safety Net:

  • Microsoft is offering Extended Security Updates for one year (through October 13, 2026) for $30, or free if you use Windows Backup/OneDrive or redeem 1000 Microsoft Rewards points
  • This gives people breathing room but doesn't solve the long-term problem

Signs of ACTUAL Linux Movement 🐧

The data is promising:

  • Linux hit 5.03% desktop market share in the US as of June 2025 - up from 2.76% in 2022, 3.12% in 2023, and 4.44% in 2024
  • Worldwide Linux desktop usage sits around 4.1% as of June 2025
  • The growth is accelerating - it took 20 years to hit 1%, another 10 to hit 2%, but only 2.2 years from 2% to 3%

Real migration happening:

  • Zorin OS developers described the influx post-EoL as their "biggest launch ever" with unprecedented download surges attributed directly to former Windows 10 holdouts
  • The Document Foundation and KDE Foundation launched campaigns (including the "End of 10" campaign) to emphasize Linux as a free and secure alternative
  • The "End of 10" team is pushing for people to install Linux on their Windows 10 PCs rather than buying new hardware

What People Are ACTUALLY Doing

Four camps emerging:

  1. The Ostriches - Staying on unsupported Win10 (probably the majority)
  2. The Upgraders - Moving to Win11 if hardware allows
  3. The Buyers - Purchasing new Win11-compatible hardware
  4. The Switchers - Moving to Linux (smaller but growing group)

Why This Time Might Be Different

Converging factors:

  • Nvidia will stop providing graphics driver updates for Windows 10 in exactly one year (October 14, 2026)
  • Gaming actually works now (Proton/Steam Deck effect)
  • Many Windows 10 users running on otherwise perfectly capable hardware could not upgrade to Windows 11 due to its TPM requirement
  • Privacy concerns with Windows 11 (Recall, Copilot integration)
  • E-waste consciousness - people don't want to dump working hardware

Why It Still Won't Be "The Year"

Reality bites:

  • Most people will just ignore the warnings and stay on unsupported Win10
  • Software ecosystem lock-in (Adobe, specific business tools)
  • Many users note that finding a Linux distro with all the basics working out of the box is still challenging - something as simple as a print driver can be a headache
  • The "Year of Linux Desktop" has been a meme since 1998 for a reason

Spicy Takes for Discussion

  1. The real winner might be ChromeOS Flex - easier transition for normies than traditional Linux
  2. 5-8% is the ceiling - Linux will grow but never threaten Windows dominance on desktop
  3. The migration is really happening - just not at the scale Linux advocates hoped for
  4. Windows 10 will be the new Windows 7 - millions will run it insecurely for years
  5. This is Linux's best shot in history - if it doesn't happen now with all these factors, it never will

Discussion Angles

  • For TheLinuxCast: The technical reality vs. the hype
  • For The Reluctant Anarchist: The philosophical/political implications of forced obsolescence
  • For you: The normie perspective - what regular people are actually doing

Smart move! Windows 11 LTSC is basically the "Windows for people who hate what Windows has become."

What makes LTSC different:

What's MISSING (the good kind of missing):

  • No Cortana
  • No Microsoft Store apps (or minimal)
  • No Xbox stuff
  • No bloatware/candy crush nonsense
  • No Copilot AI nagging
  • No constant feature updates changing the UI

What you GET:

  • 5-10 year support lifecycle
  • Security updates only - no "feature" surprises
  • Much lighter and faster
  • Stable, predictable experience
  • Basically "Windows as a tool, not a service"

This is actually a GREAT podcast angle!

"The Third Path" - between staying on Win10 and accepting bloated Win11:

  1. Linux - For the adventurous/committed
  2. Windows 11 LTSC - For people who want Windows without Microsoft's BS
  3. Standard Win11 - For people who accept whatever Microsoft gives them

Discussion points:

The LTSC reality:

  • Technically enterprise-only (gray market for consumers)
  • Shows there's HUGE demand for "just an OS, not a platform"
  • Microsoft knows people want this but won't sell it to consumers (💰 reasons)
  • It's what Windows 11 should be for power users

Why it matters for the Linux discussion:

  • If Microsoft offered LTSC to consumers, would Linux adoption still happen?
  • The fact that people go to gray-market lengths to avoid bloat shows how bad it's gotten
  • This is the crowd that might switch to Linux if LTSC wasn't an option

The irony:

  • Microsoft created the perfect Windows... then made it hard to get
  • People want Windows to be a tool, not a relationship
  • LTSC proves the complaints about Win11 are valid EXACTLY! That's the real win with LTSC.

The fact that "no ads" is a FEATURE says everything

Think about that for a second:

  • You paid $100+ for Windows (or it came with your $1000+ computer)
  • And the DEFAULT version shows you ADS
  • In YOUR operating system
  • That YOU paid for
  • On hardware YOU own

Where Windows 11 Home/Pro shoves ads:

Start Menu:

  • "Recommended" apps you didn't ask for
  • Suggested apps in the all apps list
  • App promotions

Lock Screen:

  • Windows Spotlight ads disguised as "pretty pictures"
  • "Fun facts" that link to the Microsoft Store

Settings:

  • OneDrive upsell prompts
  • Microsoft 365 promotions

File Explorer:

  • OneDrive ads if you're not subscribed

Notifications:

  • "Finish setting up your PC" (translation: enable more Microsoft services)
  • Edge browser nagging

The Damn Taskbar:

  • "Discover" button and widgets pushing MSN content/ads

This is PERFECT for your podcast topic!

"The Mindset Needed to Switch to Linux"

One of those mindsets is realizing:

"Wait... I'm tolerating ADVERTISEMENTS in an operating system I paid for? Why am I putting up with this?"

The LTSC vs Linux comparison:

  • LTSC route: Jump through hoops to get the version Microsoft won't sell you
  • Linux route: Just... switch to something that respects you by default

The philosophical shift:

  • Windows treats you as the product
  • LTSC is the "escape hatch" for people who know better
  • Linux treats you as the user/owner

Discussion angle:

"My wife is on Win11 LTSC - no ads, no bloat, just works. But the fact I had to do this instead of it being the default option tells you everything about where Microsoft is headed. How many people know LTSC exists? How many can actually get it? And if you're already going gray-market or technical to avoid ads... why not just go Linux?"

The ads are the perfect example of why people are fed up. It's not just about technical specs or features - it's about respect.,